LIVE: Canadian PM Mark Carney addresses World Economic Forum in Davos

The speaker argues that the old "rules-based international order" is a fiction that no longer works and has been replaced by a "rupture" characterized by great power rivalry and the weaponization of economic integration. He calls for middle powers, like Canada, to stop "living within a lie" and adopt a new strategy of "value-based realism."

Here are the main points and key arguments of the speech:

• The End of the Old Order (0:56): The speaker uses an analogy from Václav Havel about "living within a lie" to describe how countries participated in a "rules-based international order" they knew was flawed. This system, upheld by American hegemony, provided benefits but was ultimately a useful fiction. He declares that this bargain no longer works (2:13).

• A Rupture, Not a Transition (2:16): The current global situation is not a transition but a fundamental break. Great powers now use economic tools like tariffs, financial infrastructure, and supply chains as weapons for coercion and leverage. This makes the old idea of mutual benefit through integration a lie, as integration can now lead to subordination.

• The Need for Strategic Autonomy (3:15): With multilateral institutions like the WTO and UN under threat, countries are realizing they must develop greater self-reliance in critical areas like energy, food, finance, and supply chains. The speaker warns that this could lead to a world of isolated "fortresses," which would be poorer and more fragile (3:39).

• Canada's New Strategy: Value-Based Realism (5:38): The speaker outlines Canada's new foreign policy approach, which aims to be both principled and pragmatic.

  • Principled: Upholding core values like sovereignty, territorial integrity, and human rights.
  • Pragmatic: Recognizing that not all partners will share the same values and that progress is often incremental. This involves building the "value of our strength" at home (e.g., doubling defense spending, fast-tracking investments) and diversifying partnerships abroad (6:45).

• The Role of Middle Powers (10:08): The speaker argues that middle powers must band together. He states, "if we're not at the table, we're on the menu." Negotiating alone with great powers leads to weakness and subordination. By forming coalitions on different issues ("variable geometry"), middle powers can create a third path and wield collective influence.

• Living the Truth (11:24): To adapt to this new reality, the speaker concludes that middle powers must:

  1. Name reality: Acknowledge the world is now one of great power rivalry.
  2. Act consistently: Apply the same standards to both allies and rivals.
  3. Build new systems: Create new, functional institutions instead of waiting for the old ones to be restored.
  4. Reduce vulnerability: Strengthen domestic economies and diversify international relationships to withstand pressure and retaliation.

Based on the speech, here is what the speaker said about tariffs and trade policy:

The Problem: The Weaponization of Trade

The speaker's central argument is that the old system of global trade, which was supposed to be based on predictable rules, has broken down. He argues that great powers are now using trade and economic integration as weapons.

• Tariffs as Leverage (2:35): He explicitly states that great powers are now using "tariffs as leverage." This is part of a broader trend where economic tools are used for coercion rather than mutual benefit.
• Asymmetrical Rules (1:31): He points out that even under the old "rules-based order," it was a fiction because "trade rules were enforced asymmetrically," implying that powerful nations could bend or ignore the rules when it suited them.
• Supply Chains as Vulnerabilities (2:39): He extends this argument beyond just tariffs, noting that "supply chains [are seen] as vulnerabilities to be exploited." This means that reliance on other countries for critical goods is no longer just an economic calculation but a national security risk.

The Solution: A New Trade Strategy

In response to this new, more dangerous reality, the speaker outlines Canada's new trade policy, which is focused on diversification and building new coalitions.

• Rapid Diversification (7:14): He emphasizes that Canada is "rapidly diversifying abroad." He mentions that in just six months, Canada has:
  • Signed 12 new trade and security deals on four continents.
  • Begun negotiating free trade pacts with India, ASEAN, Thailand, the Philippines, and Mercosur.
• Building New Trading Blocs (9:04): He proposes a proactive strategy of "plurilateral trade," specifically "championing efforts to build a bridge between the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the European Union." This would create a massive new trading bloc of 1.5 billion people, anchored in shared values and rules, as a counterbalance to the coercive tactics of other great powers.
• Opposing Coercive Tariffs (8:51): He gives a specific example of this principled stance, stating that "Canada strongly opposes tariffs over Greenland" and calls for focused talks instead of economic coercion.

In summary, the speaker's view is that the era of predictable, rules-based trade is over. It has been replaced by a world where tariffs and trade dependencies are used as tools of power. The correct response, he argues, is not to retreat into isolation but to proactively build a dense web of new, diversified trade partnerships with like-minded countries to create resilience and collective strength.

Yes, the speaker mentions both President Trump and the United States (as well as "American hegemony").

Here are the exact quotes and the context in which they were said:

Mentions of President Trump

The speaker references President Trump three times, using his statements or policies as points of discussion.

1. Regarding Greenland's security:

   22:32: "when President Trump says, 'Oh, you know, Greenland's under threat from Russia, even from China...'"

2. Regarding a proposed "Board of Peace":

   23:44: "...this board of peace that President Trump is keen on."

3. Regarding globalism:

   25:56: "President Trump and a lot of people who agree with him condemn globalism a lot."

Mentions of the United States and American Hegemony

The speaker refers to the United States and its historical role in the international order.

1. On the function of the old "rules-based order": He describes how the previous international system, while flawed, was upheld by American power which provided stability.

   1:46: "And American hegemony in particular helped provide public goods: open sea lanes, a stable financial system, collective security, and support for frameworks for resolving disputes."

2. On Canada's partnerships: He mentions the U.S. as a key existing partner while discussing the need to build a wider web of connections.

   20:49: "...some of the largest ones, the United States, we already have that..."

3. On working with partners on the "Board of Peace": He confirms Canada will work with the U.S. on this initiative.

   25:13: "...we will work with others, obviously work with the United States..."

Of course. Mark Carney proposed a multi-faceted strategy for Canada and other middle powers to navigate the new era of great power rivalry. His solutions are built on the core idea of "Value-Based Realism"—being both principled in upholding core values and pragmatic in action.

Here are the key solutions and actions he proposed:

1. Strengthen from Within (Build Domestic Strength)

Carney argued that a country cannot have an effective foreign policy without a strong domestic foundation. This is the basis of "strategic autonomy."

• Build Economic Power: He cited his own government's actions as examples, including cutting taxes on income and investment, removing internal trade barriers, and fast-tracking a trillion dollars in investments in key sectors like energy, AI, and critical minerals (6:50).
• Invest in Hard Power: He stated that Canada is doubling its defense spending by the end of the decade (7:05). This is crucial because, as he said, "when the rules no longer protect you, you must protect yourself" (3:32).

2. Diversify and Build New Coalitions (A New Foreign Policy)

Instead of relying on the old, broken multilateral system, Carney advocated for a more flexible and proactive approach to international relations.

• Rapidly Diversify Partnerships: He stressed the need to move beyond traditional alliances to reduce vulnerability. He pointed to Canada signing 12 new trade and security deals in six months and negotiating free trade pacts with major economies like India, ASEAN, and Mercosur (7:25).
• Use "Variable Geometry": This was a key concept in his speech. It means forming "different coalitions for different issues based on common values and interests" (7:49). He gave several examples:
  • On Ukraine: Joining the "coalition of the willing" to provide support.
  • On Trade: Championing a new trading bloc by building a bridge between the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the European Union (9:04).
  • On Critical Minerals: Forming "buyers' clubs" with G7 nations to diversify supply away from single, concentrated sources.
  • On AI: Cooperating with like-minded democracies to set standards and avoid being dominated by hegemons or "hyperscalers."

3. Adopt a New Mindset: "Live the Truth"

Carney called for an intellectual and diplomatic shift away from pretending the old order still exists. For middle powers, "living the truth" means:

• Name Reality: Stop invoking the "rules-based international order" and call the current situation what it is: a system of "intensifying great power rivalry" where economic tools are used as weapons (11:35).
• Act Consistently: Apply the same principles and criticisms to all countries, whether they are allies or rivals. He warned that staying silent when an ally uses economic intimidation is the same as "keeping the sign in the window" (11:58).
• Build New, Functional Systems: Instead of waiting for old institutions to be restored, middle powers should proactively create new agreements and institutions that actually work as designed.
• Reduce Vulnerability to Retaliation: He argued that diversification is not just economic prudence but the "material foundation for an honest foreign policy," because it gives countries the freedom to take principled stands without fear of economic punishment (12:32).

Ultimately, Carney's proposed solution is for middle powers to stop being passive takers of a global system dictated by others. By strengthening themselves at home and actively building a dense web of flexible, issue-based coalitions abroad, they can "combine to create a third path with impact" (10:57) and avoid being "on the menu" in a world dominated by great power competition.

Excellent question. The speaker's overall tone toward the United States was diplomatic and realist, with a strong undercurrent of assertive independence and implicit criticism.

It was not overtly confrontational, but it was a clear departure from the traditional language of a junior partner simply following a leader. Here’s a breakdown of that tone:

1. Diplomatic and Respectful

When speaking directly about the historical role of the U.S., his tone was respectful and acknowledged its positive contributions.

• Acknowledging the Past: He credited the U.S. for its role in maintaining the old order, stating, "And American hegemony in particular helped provide public goods: open sea lanes, a stable financial system, collective security..." (1:46). This is a diplomatic recognition of the benefits that countries like Canada received under U.S. leadership.
• Cooperative Language: When discussing the "Board of Peace," he confirmed Canada would "obviously work with the United States" (25:13), indicating a willingness to continue partnering on specific initiatives.

2. Realist and Pragmatic

His tone was primarily that of a clear-eyed realist, describing the world as it is, not as he wishes it were. He framed the actions of great powers (including the U.S.) as a function of power, not malice.

• Acknowledging Power Dynamics: He noted that under the old system, "the strongest would exempt themselves when convenient" (1:28). This is a pragmatic acknowledgment that powerful nations, including the U.S., have always acted in their own self-interest.
• Stating Facts: His core argument that the old order is over is presented as an objective fact, a "rupture" that everyone must now deal with.

3. Implicitly Critical and Cautionary

This is the most important aspect of his tone. While he avoided naming the U.S. directly when discussing negative behavior, the criticism was clearly implied.

• Using "Great Powers" as a Euphemism: When he spoke of the "weaponization" of economic integration, the use of "tariffs as leverage," and "financial infrastructure as coercion" (2:35), he used the general term "great powers." However, for a Canadian audience and a global forum, this is widely understood to include the "America First" trade policies and tariff actions of the Trump administration. This diplomatic phrasing allows him to criticize the behavior without directly confronting a specific country.
• Warning Against Over-Reliance: The entire premise of his speech—that middle powers need to build "strategic autonomy" and "diversify" their relationships—is a direct response to the perceived unreliability of the United States as the sole guarantor of global stability. The message is that depending too much on any single great power is now a vulnerability.

4. Assertive of Independence

Ultimately, the tone was one of a partner declaring a new, more independent path. It was not anti-American, but it was pro-middle power agency.

• A Call to Action for Others: His speech was a rallying cry for countries "in between" to stop being passive. The line, "if we're not at the table, we're on the menu," (10:11) is a powerful assertion that middle powers must now actively shape their own destiny rather than waiting for great powers to do it for them.

In conclusion, the tone was not confrontational. Instead, it was that of a sober, pragmatic partner who recognizes that the fundamental dynamics of the relationship have changed. He was diplomatically signaling that while Canada remains a partner, it will no longer passively "live within the lie" of the old order and will now actively pursue its own interests by building a wider network of alliances to ensure its own security and prosperity.